Russian wheat exports through Caspian Sea resume after long hiatus

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters-1.9%
• May 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters+2.4%
• Sep 25, 2026Russia can restart 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks stop | Reuters-0.3%
• Jan 26, 2017Peso falls to session lows after meeting between US and Mexico presidents falls through+1.9%
• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+4.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2022Prospects for Australian Wheat Exports Amid the Ukraine-Russia Conflict —Australian Institute of International Affairs-7.3%
• Jun 22, 2024How Russia Exports Ukrainian Grain As Its Own: An Investigation-6.8%
• Nov 26, 2018Ukraine's Azov Sea ports operating normally despite tensions with Russia+0.6%
• Mar 24, 2025Report: Russia to discuss resuming grain deal | World Grain-1.3%
• Nov 1, 2022More grain ships leave Ukraine ports despite Russian suspension | Reuters+7.3%