
OPEC+ talks in Vienna collapsed after Russia refused to back deeper output cuts. OPEC responded by removing all limits on its own production, and Brent fell more than 10% to below $46 a barrel.
Removing output limits threatens to flood an already oversupplied market while demand is falling, pushing crude and energy-linked prices lower. The rift also raises the risk of a prolonged price war.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
OPEC+ talks collapsed on March 6 after Russia refused deeper cuts and OPEC removed output limits, a supply shock that sent Brent down over 10% and started the 5-day slide.
OPEC+ talks collapsed in Vienna and OPEC dropped its production limits, sending Brent down more than 10% and dragging WTI lower.
OPEC+ talks collapsed after Russia refused deeper cuts and OPEC dropped its production limits, which removed supply discipline and drove Brent down more than 10%.