
OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 bpd supply increase for May at an online meeting, resisting consumer calls for faster output growth. Brent was down 5.6% at $107.05 in early London trade as US plans for a 1 million bpd SPR release drove prices.
OPEC+ refusal to add extra barrels keeps crude supply tight, supporting energy and input costs for feed producers. The US SPR release is the main near-term price driver, so the net effect on energy prices is mixed.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.