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EUR/USD fell below 1.1600 as the dollar rallied on risk-off sentiment tied to the escalating US-Iran war. The Dollar Index rose 0.8% to near 99.40, its highest in over a month, and S&P 500 futures fell about 1.5%.
Eurozone headline and core inflation both rose faster than expected in February.
Safe-haven dollar strength and risk-off flows raise the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for non-US buyers. Weaker euro import purchasing power could reduce European feed demand from dollar-priced sources.
fxstreet.comSagar DuaMar 3, 2026After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, EURUSD moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
