The euro dropped below $0.99 to a new 20-year low after Russia halted gas supplies down its main pipeline to Europe. Markets had priced a near 80% chance of a 75 basis point ECB hike at the upcoming meeting.
The euro's decline follows the energy supply shock from Russia and increases European import costs. Feed buyers in Europe face higher input costs, and the weaker currency can support EU export competitiveness.
After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.