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The euro fell below 1.07 to a two-year low, extending losses for a fourth day. Traders attributed the decline to the Russia-Ukraine war, uncertainty over Russian energy supplies, and expectations of a more hawkish Fed that widened the US-Europe rate gap.
Sanctions and energy uncertainty weigh on eurozone growth and the euro, lifting the dollar cost of imported feed commodities for European buyers. Higher US rates would also tighten dollar funding conditions.
marketpulse.comKenneth FisherApr 26, 2022After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Euro slid to a two-year low early in the window on war, energy uncertainty and a widening US-Europe rate gap, helping start the 5-day decline.
Euro fell to a two-year low on war, energy uncertainty and a wider US-Europe rate gap, adding to USD strength.
