From euro to EM: Russia's Ukraine war upends market bets

After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022Euro tries to recover after tumbling on Russian invasion of Ukraine - Markets - Business Recorder-0.9%
• Mar 5, 2022Russia-Ukraine turmoil triggers market stress alarms+0.2%
• Mar 4, 2022Ukraine war sends euro below $1.10 for first time in two years-0.4%
• Mar 2, 2026European markets hurting as Iran war widens | Reuters-1.8%
• Feb 24, 2022Euro hits three-week low, Aussie skids as Putin orders troops into Ukraine - Markets - Business Recorder-1.9%

After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022Euro tries to recover after tumbling on Russian invasion of Ukraine - Markets - Business Recorder+0.0%
• Mar 5, 2022Russia-Ukraine turmoil triggers market stress alarms+0.3%
• Mar 4, 2022Ukraine war sends euro below $1.10 for first time in two years+0.7%
• Mar 2, 2026European markets hurting as Iran war widens | Reuters+1.4%
• Feb 22, 2022Asian FX, stocks slip as Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate | Reuters+0.4%