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The euro fell to its lowest level since May 2020 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with a touch as low as $1.1106. The rouble hit a record low, and the US responded with sanctions on Russian banks and state-owned enterprises.
Sanctions and the flight to the dollar strengthen the greenback and pressure euro-linked commodity prices. Disruption to Black Sea exports is a supply risk for grain and meal markets.
brecorder.comReutersFeb 25, 2022After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Recaps the euro's drop to $1.1106 after the full-scale invasion and the sanctions response; it is dated a day later but describes the same move.
