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The euro fell to a one-month low on January 25, 2022, as Russia-West tensions over Ukraine pushed investors toward the dollar. NATO put forces on standby, the US put 8,500 troops on alert, and the rouble strengthened slightly.
Credit Suisse attributed most of the dollar's strength to Fed tightening expectations.
Geopolitical risk lifts energy and wheat risk premiums and boosts the dollar, which together raise feed input costs and pressure dollar-priced grain values.
sabcnews.comRichard BrooksJan 25, 2022After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
