
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which reopened Ukrainian ports during Russia's war, is due to expire on May 18. The Kremlin is considering whether to extend it.
If the initiative lapses, Ukrainian wheat and corn exports from the Black Sea could be cut off again, which would be bullish for world grain prices.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.