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The euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar on Thursday, and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar weakened. Putin authorised military action in Ukraine's Donbass region, and the rouble held near a two-year low.
A safe-haven dollar rally and weaker commodity currencies signal risk-off markets. The Ukraine conflict also threatens Black Sea grain and oilseed supply, so feed prices could firm.
brecorder.comReutersFeb 24, 2022After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day report of the euro hitting a three-week low as Putin ordered troops into Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical risk-off pressure on the euro.
