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The dollar index rose to a two-week high as Ukraine tensions and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve lifted the currency. NATO reinforced eastern Europe and the US considered moving troops, while the euro fell to $1.1324 and to a low against the Swiss franc.
Risk of Russian curbs on energy supplies to Europe could lift energy costs and disrupt Black Sea trade. A firmer dollar tends to weigh on dollar-priced commodities.
cnbc.comReutersJan 24, 2022After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ukraine tensions and hawkish Fed expectations lifted the dollar and pressured the euro, the same drivers likely behind the 27 Jan drop, but the event is dated three days before the move, so it is only partial context.
