
The euro fell below $1.10 for the first time in almost two years and hit a seven-year low against the Swiss franc. Russian forces seized Europe's largest nuclear power plant after a building at the complex caught fire.
Analysts said the war and surging energy prices would weigh on European consumption and growth.
Higher European energy costs and weaker growth expectations pressure the euro, which lifts the dollar and makes US-priced feed inputs cheaper for euro-based buyers while raising the cost of imported energy-linked inputs.
After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Euro broke below $1.10 on 2022-03-04 as the war and surging energy prices were expected to hurt European growth and consumption, a sentiment and currency driver within the window.
Euro dropped below $1.10 on March 4 amid war and energy-price fears; euro is the largest component of the broad dollar index, so its weakness lifted the dollar.