
The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose as much as 1.4% on Thursday, its largest intraday gain in nearly two years, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove haven demand. The euro fell as much as 1.8% to 1.1106, and Scandinavian currencies declined at least 1%.
A sharp dollar rally raises dollar-denominated feed import costs for buyers outside the US and can weigh on US export prices. The effect is a currency-driven shift rather than a physical supply change.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports broad G-10 currency weakness and a 1.4% Bloomberg Dollar Index rise on haven demand, with the euro down sharply on 24 Feb.
Same-day report of the Bloomberg Dollar Index's largest rally since 2020 (up to 1.4%) with G-10 and Scandinavian currencies falling on haven demand.
Report of the Bloomberg Dollar Index's 1.4% jump and the euro's 1.8% drop to 1.1106 on safe-haven flows after the invasion directly explains the sharp euro move.