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The yen gained as safe-haven demand followed the US strike that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani. Weak US economic data also weighed on the dollar.
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Geopolitical tension lifts risk premiums in energy and can disrupt Middle East crude supply, which raises feed and transport costs. The currency reaction itself has only a modest direct effect on grain and meal prices.
reuters.comJan 3, 2020After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
