Oil falls more than $1/bbl on Middle East peace talks, US rate cut doubts

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-11.6%
• Jun 30, 2025Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks+1.6%
• Mar 22, 2026Oil prices plunge 11% on US-Iran talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East | Reuters+1.5%
• May 1, 2024Oil falls to 7-week low on surprise US storage build, Middle East hopes-5.8%
• Nov 28, 2025Oil falls on drawn-out Ukraine peace talks, all eyes on upcoming OPEC+ meeting | Reuters+0.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-9.1%
• Jun 30, 2025Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks+2.0%
• Mar 22, 2026Oil prices plunge 11% on US-Iran talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East | Reuters+2.2%
• May 1, 2024Oil falls to 7-week low on surprise US storage build, Middle East hopes-4.3%
• Nov 28, 2025Oil falls on drawn-out Ukraine peace talks, all eyes on upcoming OPEC+ meeting | Reuters+1.7%

After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 12, 2024Middle Eastern tensions are making the US dollar "hotter" than gold.+0.6%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East | Reuters+1.4%
• Mar 2, 2026Dollar (USD) Gains as Higher Oil Prices Damp Bets on Fed Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+1.4%
• Mar 12, 2026Yuan Slips As Middle East Tensions Keep The Dollar On Top - Finimize+0.5%
• Apr 13, 2024US dollar rallies on safe-haven bids, rate cut delay; yen hits 34-year low - The Economic Times+0.7%