
Oil prices fell on June 30 as Middle East geopolitical risks eased and the market expected another OPEC+ August hike. Brent closed at $67.61 and WTI at $65.11.
The prices had earlier surged above $80 during a 12-day Israel-Iran war before a ceasefire.
The removal of the war risk premium lowers crude and diesel costs for feed producers. Added OPEC+ supply reinforces the downward pressure on prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.