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US retail diesel fell to $4.98 a gallon on June 24 per AAA, the first drop below $5 since mid-March. Prices remain well above the $3.76 pre-war level due to Hormuz supply risks and tight inventories.
Diesel remains elevated versus pre-war levels, keeping freight and processing costs high for feed buyers even as the trend eases.
ttnews.comWill Kubzansky, Jack WittelsJun 24, 2026After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
