Benchmark diesel price below $4 again as war-led rally fizzles

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Aug 19, 2024No war for now brings another drop in benchmark diesel price - FreightWaves-1.2%
• Mar 9, 2020The oil price war is on; what that means for buyers of diesel - FreightWaves-27.3%
• Feb 21, 2023Diesel price down, but impact of Russian sanctions may be lifting rates overall - FreightWaves-1.3%
• Apr 18, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI falls below $83 as war fear eases+0.1%
• Sep 30, 2026More oil out of the Gulf translating to lower prices - FreightWaves+3.9%

After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.

• Jun 23, 2026Benchmark diesel price falls below $5 per gallon - FreightWaves+7.4%
• Aug 19, 2024No war for now brings another drop in benchmark diesel price - FreightWaves-0.7%
• Mar 9, 2020The oil price war is on; what that means for buyers of diesel - FreightWaves-17.1%
• Feb 21, 2023Diesel price down, but impact of Russian sanctions may be lifting rates overall - FreightWaves+3.7%
• Jun 24, 2026Diesel Prices Fall Below $5 a Gallon - TT+4.3%