
The EIA benchmark diesel price fell to $4.832 a gallon, the first sub-$5 reading since March 9. ULSD futures settled at $3.0931 a gallon on Monday, down about 52 cents from a June 10 high as Hormuz gradually reopens.
Easing Hormuz disruption is pulling futures and retail diesel lower, reducing freight and fuel surcharge pressure on feed supply chains.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.