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Benchmark ULSD futures settled at $2.2635 a gallon on August 19, the lowest of 2024, after Israel-Iran war fears from August 12 failed to produce a shooting war. The EIA retail diesel price fell 1.6 cents to $3.688 that week, its sixth straight decline.
RBOB gasoline also dropped about 2%.
Easing Middle East tensions removed a risk premium from crude and diesel, lowering energy costs for feed mills and transport. Continued softness in fuel prices supports lower freight and processing costs.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonAug 19, 2024After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
