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Oil fell below $100 a barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent dropped as much as 16% before trading near $95, and European diesel futures fell as much as 23%.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease crude and diesel supply constraints, pulling energy costs lower for feed mills and freight. The ceasefire is fragile, so prices could rebound sharply if talks fail.
dailyinvestor.comBloombergApr 8, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ceasefire tied to reopening Hormuz sent Brent down about 16% and European diesel futures down up to 23%, removing the supply risk premium.
Same-day report of oil falling below $100 and European diesel futures dropping up to 23% on ceasefire tied to reopening Hormuz, removing supply-risk premium.
Brent fell as much as 16% and diesel futures dropped sharply on ceasefire, showing a broad energy complex sell-off.
