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Diesel and gasoline led an energy selloff tied to the Israel attack on Iran, after panic buying in diesel amid tight European supply and Israel's gas export cutoff. Oil fell late in the session after the White House said a decision on Iran would come within two weeks.
Tight distillate supply and crack-spread spikes raise freight and processing costs, but the reversal on diplomacy limits the upside for energy-linked feed costs.
blog.pricegroup.comPhil FlynnJun 20, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
