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Global diesel is in shortfall after the loss of distillate exports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and China, which the US and India cannot fully replace. ExxonMobil reported record refining earnings, and ULSD futures rose while gasoline fell.
A structural distillate gap keeps diesel and freight costs elevated for agricultural logistics and fuel-linked feed costs. Strong refining margins signal that the tightness is expected to persist.
tacenergy.comJul 31, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
