
Distillate prices are rising as Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies extend crude production cuts. Middle Eastern exporters' heavier crudes yield a high share of middle distillates, so the cuts hit diesel especially hard.
Refinery capacity shortages in Europe and North America add to the squeeze.
Tighter diesel supply lifts fuel costs for feed mills, trucking and farm operations, and raises freight surcharges that feed into delivered feed ingredient prices.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.