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WTI crude rebounded from a five-month low after the US announced sanctions on Russian state-owned producers Rosneft and Lukoil, with the prompt contract rising $3.96 on the week to settle at $61.50 per barrel. Earlier in the week prices had opened at $57, the lowest since May, on a projected supply surplus from the IEA.
Reports that India would scale back Russian crude purchases also supported prices midweek.
Sanctions on major Russian producers could curtail roughly 500-600 thousand barrels per day, tightening crude supply and lifting energy costs for feed production and transport. Higher crude also supports biofuel-linked vegetable oil and corn ethanol economics.
aegis-hedging.comOct 24, 2025After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
