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Oil prices surged after Iran fired rockets at Israel. The attack raised the risk of supply disruption in a region that pumps about a third of the world's crude.
A threat to Middle East crude supply lifts energy costs, which raises diesel and transport expenses for feed mills and can push up grain and oilseed prices through biofuel and freight links.
bloomberg.comAntonia MufarechSep 30, 2024After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Iran's missile attack raised supply disruption risk in a region producing a third of world crude, starting the rally at the beginning of the window.
