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Vessels' inability to transit the Strait of Hormuz has driven sharp increases in urea, ammonia, phosphate and sulphur prices, with urea rising about 50% from late February to mid-March. India has prioritized gas for city networks, limiting fertilizer plant supply to around 70-75% of typical needs and cutting urea output.
Strikes on Gulf infrastructure and force majeures could further squeeze availability.
Disruption to Gulf nitrogen and phosphate exports and reduced Indian urea output tighten global supply and lift input costs for feed-grain and oilseed producers. Higher energy prices also feed through to natural gas-based fertilizer costs.
argusmedia.comSarah MarlowMar 25, 2024After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
