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US renewable diesel feedstocks reached their highest prices of Trump's second term, with all major feedstocks at two-year-plus highs in March. Energy prices surged as Iran attacked Middle East energy infrastructure and restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Soybean oil futures are up 36pc this year, though most of that gain predates the war.
Costlier crude makes biofuel feedstocks more competitive, and supportive policy suggests prices could stay firm even if Middle East tensions ease, which raises input costs for food manufacturers.
argusmedia.comCole Martin, Jamuna GautamMar 25, 2024After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
