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European ethanol prices have risen more than 10% since the US-Israel war with Iran began, reaching €754/m³, the highest since November. The conflict has disrupted freight, closed transatlantic arbitrage and tightened an already short European market.
Higher energy and freight costs from the Hormuz disruption lift biofuel feedstock values and push up corn and sugar-based ethanol prices. The effect on feed grain prices is indirect.
argusmedia.comMar 25, 2024After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
