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Paper urea contracts jumped more than 10% from the prior week after the US-Iran conflict began, with US Gulf futures trading near $500/t on CME. Middle East urea bids moved above $500/t and Egyptian physical sales continued at around $520s/t fob, while major Middle East suppliers withdrew offers.
The Middle East accounts for roughly 35% of seaborne urea trade, so disrupted supply pushes nitrogen prices higher, raising feed-grain production costs and pressuring corn and other grain margins.
argusmedia.comHarry MinihanMar 2, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated March 2, it shows paper urea up over 10% and Middle East suppliers withdrawing offers with bids above $500/t, a direct supply shock and price discovery on the move date.
Paper urea futures jumped over 10% and Middle East suppliers withdrew offers after the conflict began, directly driving price discovery higher.
