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US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures rose about 8% to their highest since February, outpacing crude and gasoline. Analysts said diesel supply is most exposed to the Middle East conflict because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub and medium heavy-sour crude used for distillates could be disrupted.
Fears of disruption to Middle East distillate and crude exports raise diesel and crude prices, with diesel feed-cost and freight-related inputs likely to firm.
reuters.comShariq KhanJun 13, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Diesel futures rose about 8% to a multi-month high, outpacing crude because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub, so distillate supply risk is amplified.
Diesel futures outpaced crude and gasoline because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub, explaining diesel's outsized move.
US diesel futures rose about 8% on Middle East distillate supply exposure, a concurrent effect of the same shock.
Diesel futures rose 8% on exposure of distillate supply to the Middle East conflict, which reflects and reinforces the crude rally.
