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Middle East urea producers have withdrawn offers as the conflict escalates. Granular urea was $490-495/t fob on 27 February before the attacks.
Vessel owners are reluctant to cross the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens deliveries from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, which together shipped 12.6mn t in 2024.
The region's producers account for a large share of seaborne urea, so a halt in their exports removes a major supply source during peak import months. This is strongly bullish for global urea and nitrogen prices.
argusmedia.comHarry MinihanMar 25, 2024After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
