
Egyptian producers Mopco and Alexfert sold 6,000t cargoes of granular urea at $495-505/t fob for March loading, mainly for Europe. Prices rose after the US military began major combat operations in Iran.
Israeli gas fields were shut, which raises concern about Egyptian urea output.
Egypt normally exports about 4mn t/yr of urea, mostly to Europe, so gas disruptions there would tighten supply to Europe and support global urea prices. Higher nitrogen costs feed into feed-grain production costs.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.