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US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend escalated Middle East tensions, and wheat and corn futures on Euronext and CBOT moved moderately higher on March 2. Traders expect cash prices to edge up steadily, and freight rates have risen, which may lift CNF and CIF levels.
Strait of Hormuz disruption is slowing vessel movements.
A geopolitical risk premium lifts futures and delivered grain costs, while buyers may pause purchases, slowing physical activity.
expanamarkets.comZanna AleksahhinaMar 2, 2026After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
