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A Reuters explainer outlines how a Russia-Ukraine conflict could disrupt grain flows from Black Sea ports, which ship grain from Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania. Ukraine is projected to be the third-largest corn exporter and fourth-largest wheat exporter, while Russia is the top wheat exporter.
Analysts flag geopolitical risk to wheat prices amid already high food inflation.
Any interruption of Black Sea grain shipments would tighten global wheat and corn supplies and lift prices, raising feed costs for buyers.
reuters.comJan 21, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
