
ICIS reports that global fertilizer markets remain highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz disruption removes urea, sulfur and feedstock volumes from trade. It notes gas constraints, Indian supply concerns ahead of kharif season, and mixed demand with Asian and Latin American buyers cautious.
Reduced fertilizer availability and higher input prices tighten supply chains and may cut application rates, which supports feed grain and oilseed prices.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.