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Researchers say urea prices rose by about $80 a ton from roughly $470 before the Iran war began. Nitrogen fertilizers such as urea are the most exposed near term to the conflict's effect on fuel and fertilizer supply.
Strait of Hormuz disruption cuts supply of a large share of traded nitrogen, keeping urea and related input costs elevated. Higher fertilizer costs can reduce planted area and application rates, which tightens grain supply.
reuters.comSharon KimathiApr 9, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
