The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Apr 9, 2026Iran war’s impact on fertilizer and fuel | Reuters+2.4%
• Apr 7, 2026ICIS provides insight into impacts of US-Iran war on fertilizer markets | World Fertilizer0.0%
• Apr 13, 2026War Stresses Global Fertilizer Markets | Rabobank+1.2%
• Jun 2, 2026Global Fertilizer Markets Today - IFDC-8.2%
• May 19, 2026Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, fertilizer shocks drive new rally | S&P Global-1.9%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 7, 2026ICIS provides insight into impacts of US-Iran war on fertilizer markets | World Fertilizer-2.5%
• Apr 13, 2026War Stresses Global Fertilizer Markets | Rabobank+1.7%
• Sep 23, 2025What Would Global Sanctions Against Russia Do to Fertilizer Markets?-1.4%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%
• Jul 2, 2026Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? | IFPRI+0.8%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 19, 2026Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, fertilizer shocks drive new rally | S&P Global-1.1%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+1.7%
• Apr 29, 2026As nitrogen-based fertilizer prices soar, global food inflation looms - The HinduBusinessLine-3.1%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-2.3%
• Jun 16, 2022Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts additional strain on global food production chain-2.3%