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Nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged since the West Asia conflict began, with US Gulf urea up 50% to $693/tonne by April 20 and Middle East urea up 76% to $850/tonne as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Analysts at Capital Economics warn higher input costs could push global food prices up over the next 15 months.
Urea makes up a large share of nitrogen costs for corn and other feed grains, so higher fertilizer prices raise future production costs and support grain prices over time. BMI forecasts Middle East urea easing in the second half of 2026, which limits how long the pressure lasts.
thehindubusinessline.comSubramani Ra MancombuApr 29, 2026After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Hormuz closure and the surge in nitrogen prices raise input costs and cut supply across fertilizers, which spills over into DAP via sulfur/ammonia costs and substitution, though the article focuses on urea.
Surging nitrogen prices and the effective closure of Hormuz raise input costs and pull phosphate prices higher through ammonia and sulphur linkages and fertilizer substitution.
