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DAP and urea prices are surging as crude oil and LNG prices rise amid Gulf tensions. Experts expect DAP to reach at least $1,000 per tonne FOB from about $850 last week, with urea possibly exceeding $1,000 CFR.
India's upcoming sowing season is adding demand pressure.
Higher energy and LNG costs raise nitrogen and phosphate production costs and Gulf supply risk lifts fertilizer prices, squeezing farm margins and feed grain production economics.
thehindubusinessline.comPrabhudatta MishraMar 4, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Gulf tensions raising crude, LNG and input costs plus Indian pre-sowing demand support DAP strength, though dated two days after the move so it is more confirmation of the trend than a direct driver.
