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US urea prices rallied on Oct. 2, 2024, with deals at $328-$336/st FOB New Orleans versus $310-$320/st the week of Sept.
23. The increase followed escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
The ILA port strike on East and Gulf Coasts, which began Oct. 1, also raised concerns for imports.
Iran is a major urea exporter and Middle East supply is concentrated, so geopolitical risk tightens global nitrogen supply and lifts fertilizer costs for feed grain producers. Higher nitrogen costs could also weigh on future corn acreage and prices.
spglobal.comOct 2, 2024After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
