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CBOT wheat closed limit up 60 cents a bushel on Wednesday after Russia bombed Ukrainian port infrastructure, the largest daily move since the Ukraine war began. Prices then fell 30 cents on Friday, and funds covering short positions and physical buyers added to the rally.
Attacks on port infrastructure rattled markets and triggered short covering, but the late-week reversal shows the premium is fragile. Feed buyers should expect continued sharp swings in wheat and corn tied to Black Sea headlines.
ukragroconsult.comJul 18, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes a limit-up wheat rally on Russian bombing of Ukrainian ports, with short covering and physical buying amplifying it, but the dating and description are inconsistent, so the link is uncertain.
