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Urea prices rose about $5-7/t in most benchmark locations after Iran launched missiles into Israel, lifting market fears. Several pending trades were abandoned as buyers pulled back, while the Middle East FOB price approached $360/t and November forwards were quoted near $380.
Middle East supply is central to global urea trade, so geopolitical risk to those flows and firmer tender pricing point to higher nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed grain producers in coming months.
farmingportal.co.zaOct 5, 2024After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Urea prices rose $5-7/t after Iran's missile launch and buyers pulled back from trades, which matches the sentiment-driven rally, though the article is dated after the move.
