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India's RCF urea tender closed on 3 October for shipments to 20 November, coinciding with escalating Middle East tensions that lifted derivatives and physical offers. Egyptian granular urea rose $17/t in under five days to about $387/t FOB, and US Gulf barge prices exceeded $330/t FOB Nola for the first time since June.
Middle East suppliers are the primary source for India, so risk to those cargoes and the firm tender outcome support higher global urea prices and nitrogen input costs.
profercy.comChris YearsleyOct 4, 2024After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Indian tender and Middle East tensions lifted physical offers and NOLA barge prices, but the article is dated Oct 4, after the move, so it is a partial confirmation.
