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Granular urea prices are now established at $700 per tonne fob and above at most major export points, with Nigeria's Dangote selling 30,000t for April shipment at $700 fob and Egyptian producers placing volumes at $710-720 fob. Middle East supply remains largely blocked from international trade, and import-dependent markets such as the US, Australia and India face rising replacement costs.
Blocked Gulf urea exports are tightening global nitrogen supply just before spring application, supporting higher fertilizer costs for feed grain growers and pushing up input costs for corn and other crops that feed livestock.
profercy.comChris YearsleyMar 18, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
