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Iranian urea and ammonia production has been idled since June 14, with all stored ammonia flared, after an Israeli drone struck a South Pars gas facility. Egypt has idled its nitrogen plants since Israeli gas supply stopped on June 13.
Phosphate prices are also rising on limited supply, with India and Brazil driving DAP and MAP demand, while potash prices are stable.
Lost Iranian and Egyptian urea output tightens nitrogen supply, and rising phosphate prices add to input costs for feed-grain and oilseed producers. Brazil's affordability limits may cap potash demand even as prices hold.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganJun 23, 2025After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
