
Global fertiliser prices reached new records as supplies were hit by reduced output from Russia and Belarus. Supply chain disruptions, a Chinese export ban and a Canadian rail strike also tightened availability.
Several factors are combining to constrain global fertiliser supply.
Combined export restrictions and logistics disruptions keep fertiliser supply tight, raising input costs for grain and feed producers. Prices are likely to remain elevated while these constraints persist.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.