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CRU Group analysts say fertiliser prices will keep rising for months, and an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would do little to restrain them. Prices have surged since the near-standstill of maritime traffic through the Strait, with sulphur also highlighted as a constrained input.
Persistently high fertilizer costs, especially for urea and phosphates, squeeze farm margins and could reduce application, supporting grain and feed prices.
abc.net.auClint JasperApr 23, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
CRU warning that fertilizer prices keep rising for months even if Hormuz reopens, with constrained sulphur supply, supports upward DAP pricing.
