
Brownfield reports that StoneX's Josh Linville expects fertilizer access and prices to stay challenging in 2025. He cites China's export restrictions and the loss of Russian anhydrous exports after the invasion of Ukraine.
Linville also argues the US should build domestic fertilizer capacity.
Persistent geopolitical constraints on fertilizer supply keep input costs elevated, which squeezes feed producers' margins. The article reinforces a firm price outlook without signaling a new market shock.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.